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Sunday, March 31, 2013

Weekly Trading Forecasts (April 1 - 5, 2013)

EURUSD
Primary trend: Bearish
The outlook on the EURUSD is bearish. Recently, the market dropped by more than 230 pips from the weekly high of 1.3046. Further bearish plunge is expected, but not without short-term rallies which would invariably proffer good opportunities to sell short in a downtrend. The indicators on the chart confirm this bearish scenario and the price could plunge towards the support line of 1.2700. In the near-term, any short-term rallies are not expected to take the price above the resistance line at 1.2900.

USDCHF
Primary trend: Bullish
Due to its inherent nature, I would like to term this unique pair as being slow and tardy. The outlook here is bullish, but we would do well to note that, no price moves in a straight line (no not one). This means that, now and then, there would be some southward retracement in the price, which is not expected to go below the support level at 0.9450. Since any bearish correction would proffer an opportunity to go long in the face of the extant outlook, the price may go upwards towards the resistance level of 0.9600 (in the next several trading days to come).  

GBPUSD
Primary trend: Bullish
In spite of the recent turbulence in the market, in which the bear occasionally dominated the bull, the major bias on the Cable is to the upside. The indicators on the chart show a Bullish Confirmation Pattern. In recent times, serious bearish pressure nearly rendered the bullish outlook totally invalid, but the bull came back and pushed the price upwards. Because of the currently dismal outlook on Europe, the expected further bullish run on the market would not be that much strong. But at least, the price would reach the distribution territory at 1.5300. 

USDJPY
Primary trend: Bearish
Recently, the pair has traded in a sideways manner. Overall, the price has not gone above the supply level at 95.00 and neither has it gone below the demand level at 93.50. There must be a clear break above or below one of the aforementioned levels before there can be a clearer direction in the market. If none of the supply and demand levels mentioned here is broken, then note that the market is still in an equilibrium phase. However, I would like to mention that it is more likely for the price to break below the demand level of 93.50 when a breakout does occur, for the major outlook on the USDJPY market is bearish.

EURJPY
Primary trend: Bearish
This cross has lately dropped by more than 300 pips! There is a Bearish Confirmation Pattern on the chart, for the indicators support this. Even, in the face of this strong bearish pressure, the price has not been able to break the demand zone at 120.00 to the downside. This is a significant barrier in the current scenario: for the bearish outlook to continue to be valid, the price must break the demand zone at 120.00 to the downside, closing below it and trading further downwards. Before this can be done, there would be a serious struggle between the bear and the bull, but it must be done, for the general bearish outlook on this cross not to be in jeopardy.

 

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