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Monday, March 18, 2013

Weekly Trading Forecasts (March 18 - 22, 2013)

 EURUSD
Primary trend: Bearish
Though the primary trend on this pair is bearish, the trend is in a serious jeopardy. There is currently a conspicuous rally on this pair: oscillators have given a bullish signal but momentum indicators like long-term MAs are yet to confirm that. Trading an unconfirmed bias is not recommended at this stage. Should this rally continue further for a few more days, it would see the end of the current bearish outlook. Therefore, it is advisable to wait for further confirmation before opening a new order.

USDCHF
Primary trend: Bullish
In the opposite manner, the outlook on this market is nearly similar to that of the EURUSD. There has been a significant bearish pull on the pair; the oscillators support this, including the price action. It is more likely that this bearish pull would continue, but it is wiser to wait for further confirmation of the supposedly new trend before taking any action. As soon as this is confirmed, the primary bullish trend would be over and short trades would be sought.

 GBPUSD
Primary trend: Bullish
This formerly helpless instrument, which has been battered by the bulls, is now exuding some form of protracted stamina. There has been a Bullish Confirmation Pattern on the chart, and long trades are recommended now. This is still a pretty new trend and it is best to take advantage of it when the price yet remains in its trough. Indicators (including oscillators and momentum technical tools) support this new outlook. Very soon, the price would reach the distribution zone of 1.5300.

USDJPY
Primary trend: Bullish
In recent times, the price on this pair has been moving in a sideways manner. At the time of writing this article, there has neither been a break above the resistance level of 96.50 nor a break below the support level of 95.50. What can be said is that, though the market is in a form of consolidation, the primary trend remains bullish. So when there is a break out of the consolidation, it would possibly be to the upside.

EURJPY
Primary trend: Bullish
Like most JPY pairs, this cross is in a bullish mode, for the indicators on the chart confirm this as the primary trend. There is still a Bullish Confirmation Pattern on the chart, so the price is expected to continue its journey upwards. There would be some bearish corrections along the way, but these would be transitory (not expected to take the price below the market zones of 125.00 or 124.50). Eventually, the price would reach the supply zones of 126.00 and 127.00 respectively.

Conclusion: It does not make sense to keep on following a direction that is no longer valid. Whenever there is a shortage of speculators to continue going in certain direction, the existence of that market direction would be jeopardized. When the price movement is rejected at a significant market level, it is most likely that the trend would turn at that level… In the face of new biases, there would usually be corrections - a result of struggle between the bulls and the bears and medium-term smoothing of positions.



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