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Monday, April 29, 2013

Weekly Trading Forecasts (April 29 - May 3, 2013)

Pro-cyclical currency instruments would normally go northward in bull markets, as prices are breaking more and more supply levels. On the other hand, anti-cyclical currency instruments tend to exhibit a measure of strength only in bear markets, as prices are breaking more and more demand levels. Sometimes a confirmed bias may last longer than one imagines.

EURUSD
Primary trend: Bearish
Recently it looks as though the EURUSD is not making any decisive directional move, although the current bias is towards the downside. Any possible bullish attempts are not supposed to take the price above the resistance line of 1.3150, whereas the bears could push the price lower towards the support lines of 1.2950 and 1.2900 respectively. For the next several trading days, I would assume a bearish outlook.

USDCHF
Primary trend: Bullish
The primary trend on this pair has turned bullish lately and it is expected that this scenario would continue to hold. There is a Bullish Confirmation Pattern on the chart, and all indicators are in favor of the bulls. For this current outlook to keep on making sense, short-term bearish corrections should not take the price below the support levels of 0.9400 and 0.9350 respectively. Meanwhile, the price could reach the resistance level of 0.9550.

GBPUSD
Primary trend: Bullish
There is a long signal on this instrument and it is currently valid. The indicators on the chart are presently in favor of the bulls, and therefore, there is a Bullish Confirmation Pattern on the chart. Since this signal was generated, the price has moved upwards by over 230 pips, and it could reach some distribution territories at 1.5500 and 1.5550. Nevertheless, some probable bearish threats could pull the price towards the accumulation territories at 1.5300 and 1.5250.

USDJPY
Primary trend: Bullish
In recent times, the USDJPY has been trading within some defined range, because it has been unable to breach the great supply level at 100.00 (a feat that must be accomplished for the current bullish outlook to survive). It is either the price breaks above the aforementioned supply level or it breaks below the demand level at 98.00 to the downside. Whatever happens as far as these two options are concerned would determine the next price action.

EURJPY
Primary trend: Bullish
Just like most other JPY pairs, this cross is in some serious equilibrium zones and it is yet to make any significant bullish continuation determination. Momentum indicators still confirm the bullish bias – which is, in fact, still valid. But the oscillators are showing the possibility of the bears having upper hands. One would need to wait until the market showcases further confirmation of its intent, and until then it is better to stay out of this market.



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